In this paper we present a simulation approach to mapping avalanche risk with
application to settlements in Iceland. Two simulation models are developed to
calculate the probability of avalanches travelling a certain distance, and of
the flow being a specific width. These two simulation models, in combination
with knowledge of the average frequency of avalanche occurrence, the variability
in avalanche direction and the degree of loss caused by an avalanche, permit
risk values to be determined for the areas of concern.